Who wins the Champions League? Ranking all the last-16 contenders

The UEFA Champions League last 16 is here as Europe's top competition heats up. Ahead of the first legs this week, we've ranked every remaining team by their chances of winning the Champions League this season.

The Italians ousted Borussia Dortmund in the play-offs after a thrilling comeback. Atalanta, however, now face Dortmund's big Bundesliga brother, as Bayern Munich come to town.

Eliminating Europe's top scorers would be a monumental feat, but even if achieved, Real Madrid or Manchester City await in the next round.

Tottenham are fortunate not to rank bottom here, given how shambolic their season has been. The North Londoners are 11 without a win in the Premier League and perilously close to relegation. Their improved form in this competition has been their only saving grace.

Bayer Leverkusen suffered from the sad fate that comes to all teams that dare to punch above their weight, with their title-winning team picked apart by wealthier clubs in recent windows.

Leverkusen languish in sixth in the Bundesliga as a result and face an Arsenal team with a perfect record in this season's competition in the last 16.

Everyone's new favourite underdogs have been some story this season. The Norwegian side saw off Inter Milan in the play-offs, and have claimed four consecutive upsets with wins over Manchester City, Atletico Madrid and Inter (2).

A favourable draw sees Bodo meet Sporting in the last 16, a fixture both teams will fancy.

– Monday, 9 March 2026

Sporting sit just above Bodo in our rankings, given an impressive campaign to date. A top-eight finish was secured in the league phase, while domestically they've scored a whopping 64 goals in 25 Primeira Liga games.

The Turkish champions are into the knockout stages for the first time in more than a decade and, while inconsistent, have the talent to trouble teams. Victor Osimhen has scored seven times in the Champions League already, while RAMS Park is a daunting trip for any side.

If Galatasaray can just improve on the road...

Eight of the last 16 have never won the Champions League before. Incredibly, seven of those sides, Newcastle included, find themselves on the same side of the draw.

The Magpies face the only previous winners, Barcelona , next in the 'blue path' but h ave previous in this fixture. Their result at St James' Park will be crucial.

It's been a decade since Atletico Madrid last reached the final of this competition, and they've failed to progress past the quarter-finals since 2017.

However, Diego Simeone has deep experience in European competition. A struggling Spurs side is up next in the last 16, perhaps an ideal opponent to kickstart a run into the latter stages.

– Monday, 9 March 2026

Chelsea are a peculiar side when it comes to the Champions League. The club's best-ever teams under Jose Mourinho and Carlo Ancelotti failed to make an impact in the competition, while underdog outfits won the damn thing in 2012 and 2021.

Few fancy Chelsea to win the Champions League this season, so maybe we should actually expect an open-top bus in the near future?

With their Premier League title defence in tatters, Europe has taken on added importance for Liverpool . Arne Slot's side secured a comfortable passage to the last 16 and face Galatasaray next up.

Liverpool lost in Istanbul earlier in the campaign but will start as favourites. From there, however, a run to the final looks tough.

See Chelsea - and then some.

You can never write Real Madrid off in the Champions League, so putting them sixth will surely come back to haunt us.

The Spanish league leaders are aiming to win the Champions League for the first time in 11 years this season, a drought based on the standard set this century.

Barcelona breezed into this stage and have scored at will under Hansi Flick this season. Whether the Catalans can keep things tight at the other end is up for debate.

– Monday, 2 March 2026

It's going a little under the radar that Manchester City are still chasing a quadruple this season. Pep Guardiola's team haven't quite been as dominant as in past years, but keep chalking up wins at big moments.

The winter window additions of Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guehi have added real quality to the ranks.

Paris Saint-Germain lack the fear factor of last season, but can we really discount last season's all-conquering side?

Luis Enrique's side got better and better as the tournament progressed, culminating in a record-breaking 5-0 final win over Inter Milan. PSG will hope history can repeat itself.

Bayern Munich are powering towards yet another Bundesliga title, with their fantastic forward line tearing apart German football. Bayern have scored 92 goals in the league already and are on course to break the record for goals scored in a single season across Europe's top five leagues.

In Europe, one setback at Arsenal has been their only error. That performance is the only red flag for the German champions, who feel this is their year again.

Arsenal lead our rankings and have put together a 100% record in the Champions League this season. The Gunners have beaten Bayern, Atletico Madrid and Inter Milan convincingly, and a combination of a rock-solid defence and set-piece threat bodes well for knockout football.

The major question mark is whether the North Londoners have the experience and composure to become first-time winners when the pressure is on.

– Saturday, 7 March 2026