Mikel Arteta can laugh off criticism of his style - it could end the Pep Guardiola era

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When Mikel Arteta and Pep Guardiola embrace ahead of kick-off at Wembley, it will be for the 16th time as managerial adversaries. And it goes without saying that this meeting - in today’s Carabao Cup Final - and the next one, which will take place at the Etihad Stadium on April 19, carry extra significance.

If he twice beats the man who was his training ground mentor, Arteta could well hasten Guardiola’s departure from English club football. Victories at Wembley this afternoon and in Manchester in four weeks will all but guarantee Arsenal at least two trophies for the season. The Carabao Cup and the Premier League.

In the time between the two games against Manchester City, Arsenal face an FA Cup quarter-final at Southampton, while Pep’s team takes on Liverpool in the last eight. In those respective ties, the odds on Arsenal winning are far shorter than the odds on City winning.

Talking of odds, it is now only 12-1 against Arsenal winning a quadruple. But first, Arteta has to achieve something he has done only four times in their previous 15 managerial contests. Get the better of Guardiola.

It is by no means a given but one thing is for certain. If City do manage to beat the Premier League leaders at Wembley, it will be close. For all the talk about their style - or lack of it - consider this simple fact about the Arsenal squad of 2025/26.

They have played 49 matches in all competitions and their only three losses came via the odd goal. Dominik Szoboszlai’s winner at Anfield arrived in the 83rd minute, Emi Buendia made it 2-1 to home side Aston Villa in the 90th minute, while Matheus Cunha gave Manchester United victory in London in the 87th minute. It is a record that is all about relentlessness.

But that word does not do Arsenal justice. It has got to the stage when Arteta should not even bother verbally defending his and his team’s approach to winning football matches. Perhaps just tell critics to re-watch the goals from Eberechi Eze and Declan Rice that took Arsenal past Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League.

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Or even the goals from Noni Madueke and Eze that took them into the last eight of the FA Cup. This is a squad that has a swathe of players capable of the spectacular.

Or maybe Arteta should simply point to the 106 goals his team has scored in all competitions. True, 37 percent of those goals have been scored from set-pieces but you don’t have to be a mathematical genius to know that means 63 percent of those goals have come from open play.

As it happens, if you had to make an educated guess at what might be the difference between the two teams at Wembley, you would probably highlight Arsenal’s superiority at set-pieces, offensively and defensively. Or you might just highlight Arsenal’s defensive superiority.

City’s defensive record is not shabby, having conceded 44 goals in 48 matches. But in their 49 matches, Arsenal have only let in 32 goals.

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So, that is 106 scored and 32 conceded this season. It is hugely impressive, no matter what you think of how they go about things. And barring increased effectiveness from set-pieces, they go about things in a fairly normal manner.

They are supremely organised and combative when defending, and creative, quick and ruthless when attacking. That is the norm for elite teams. They are different from Guardiola’s most successful City teams, for sure. But winning styles evolve.

If Arteta is successful at Wembley today and then at the Etihad, it will be with a winning style that has left his mentor behind. And that is why Guardiola might decide - a year ahead of his contract expiring - the time is right to call an end to his wonderful City era.

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