Leicester collapse is the warning sign Spurs, West Ham and Forest all ignored

Relegation is becoming more dangerous than ever. Leicester City’s collapse shows why. Just ten years after lifting the Premier League trophy, the club now face the possibility of dropping into League One following a six-point deduction.

Their demise is a real warning for West Ham, Nottingham Forest and Tottenham, who are currently split by just one point . Being Too Good To Go Down often means high wages and a squad unsustainable without Premier League wealth.

Leicester’s relegation to the Championship in 2022/23 was completely unexpected. Brendan Rodgers had led the team to eighth the year prior, following fifth and FA Cup glory in 2021 . Having established themselves as a top-half team, there were clear intentions to build further.

Those investments amplified the sudden relegation. Leicester had a £107million wage bill – unprecedented in England’s second tier. Losing Premier League revenue soon pushed the club into breach of the profit and sustainability rules.

Much like Leicester in 2023, this season’s relegation rivals were all expected to fight for European positions. Tottenham are the reigning Europa League champions; Nottingham Forest finished seventh last season; West Ham are just three years removed from Europa Conference League glory. Yet they are operating with the 7th, 9th and 13th-highest wage bills in the league respectively. Whichever club goes down will need to cut those figures significantly.

Leicester were not the first club to suffer a relegation against the odds. West Ham were viewed as Too Good To Go Down in 2003. Yet they bounced back within two years and managed to avoid the detrimental effects Leicester are enduring.

The landscape changed dramatically between those relegations. The financial gulf between England’s top two divisions is now wider than ever. As a result, the likelihood of breaching the rules has never been higher.

One of Leicester’s reported mistakes was failing to insert relegation wage drop clauses. The perceived lack of relegation threat may have been a similar oversight among the current crop.

The revenue-generating Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and cost-effective lease of the London Stadium may protect their inhabitants. Forest, however, will likely find it harder to offset their wage bill. The negative effects on each club can only be limited by how much they have future-proofed for worst-case scenarios.