Is the Premier League at risk of losing fifth Champions League place after exits?

The Premier League could boast seven clubs in next season’s Champions League if all the right pieces fall into place – but there is now a real danger of having only four spots after a string of poor results.

Last term saw an unprecedented six English clubs qualify for Europe’s premier competition; five by their league position, while Tottenham earned their place in the league phase after winning the Europa League .

Yet that inflated contingent could grow even more this year, with the Premier League appearing as one of the more prominent beneficiaries to the competition’s expansion to 36 teams that came into effect at the beginning of 2024/25.

As with every season, the top four clubs in the Premier League table are guaranteed a spot in the 2026/27 edition – but like last year, England is on course to earn an additional place .

Newcastle were the team that benefited from this last term, whose final-day loss didn’t mean as much as it might have after the Magpies were leapfrogged by Chelsea into fourth .

That elusive fifth spot is earned by being one of the best-performing two nations in each season’s European club competitions and as things stand. English teams performed particularly well in the Champions League league phase, which boosted their points tally in Uefa’s standings.

However, the last-16 exits of Chelsea, Manchester City and Tottenham (who are almost certain to be elimated by Atletico Madrid on Wednesday evening) means Germany, Portugal and Spain can catch up in the coefficient standings. Arsenal are through to the quarter-finals , but Newcastle face a tricky away trip to Barcelona with the scores level from the first leg and could also tumble out on Wednesday night, potentially leaving only one of England’s five sides left in Europe’s premier competition.

Spain is most likely to catch England’s coefficient ranking, with Atletico, Barcelona and Real Madrid all poised to reach the quarter-finals of the Champions League. England are still likely to finish as one of the top two best-performing nations, with Spain, but Germany and Portugal can now close in, especially if one of their sides wins the Champions League (Bayern Munich, Sporting CP) or the Europa League (Stuttgart, Freiburg, Braga, Porto).

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It’s still possible that the Premier League will have a quintet of Champions League berths by the end of the campaign. Spots six and seven, however, require some optimistic hypothetical thinking to come true.

The Premier League will earn an extra spot at Europe’s top table if an English club outside the top five wins this season’s tournament.

The winner of the Champions League would guarantee themselves a spot in the next campaign , as is always the case – but if that club has already qualified for the following edition via league position , that country will not get an extra spot.

That means Newcastle would need to win the Champions League for the Premier League to gain an additional place, as Arsenal will finish in the top five.

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On top of that, the winner of the Europa League is also awarded a place in the Champions League , which assuming all of the above takes shape would bring the Premier League’s tally of qualified teams to the magic seven.

Aston Villa , who finished second in the league phase, are currently favourites to lift the title and will resume their European charge against Lille in the last-16, having won the first leg.

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However, Villa are currently third in the Premier League so would need Europa League glory to come at the expense of their top-five finish to the deliver a seventh qualification spot to England.

But the burden is not just on the Villans.

Nottingham Forest , who are languishing at the other end of the Premier League table, also find themselves in the knockouts after dispatching Turkish heavyweights Fenerbahce in their play-off tie . They slumped to a 1-0 defeat against Midtjylland in the first leg of the last-16.

Should Forest win the Europa League, they would ensure that English teams take another one of the 36 spots in next season’s Champions League.