Bukayo Saka is at a critical point in his Arsenal career... their recruitment has stifled him, the numbers reveal his influence is waning - but here's how he can prove he's still Gunners' beating heart, writes ISAAN KHAN

When chasing a goal, Mikel Arteta turns to Bukayo Saka – not away from him.

Only if his Arsenal team have a match all-but-sealed does the Spaniard consider substituting his star winger to wrap him in cotton wool; he is valued that highly.

In the previous two seasons, the 24-year-old has only been hooked off before the hour mark (excluding injury-enforced substitutions) on four occasions in the Premier League or Champions League .

This context made the moment against Bayer Leverkusen last week, when Saka exited the field on 60 minutes – the earliest time he has been taken off in either competition this season (save for an injury against Leeds ) – feel particularly symbolic.

Arsenal were hunting an equaliser, yet his evening had passed without the decisive contributions that have come to define him. No goal or assist, no massive impact. Instead, it was Saka’s replacement Noni Madueke who won a penalty to earn the Gunners a fortuitous 1-1 draw in the first leg in Germany.

He was better in the second leg at the Emirates on Tuesday, but still. Saka's numbers have not kept pace with the expectation around him – he has scored just two goals and assisted three in his last 23 appearances in all competitions.

Mikel Arteta almost never takes off Bukayo Saka when a game is in the balance - which made his removal after 60 minutes against Bayer Leverkusen last week all the more significant

Much of Arsenal's play still goes through their best-paid player, but Saka's numbers are down on previous seasons

Yet, much of Arsenal's play still goes through their best-paid player. It’s a complex picture, but his substitution against Leverkusen could mark a crucial juncture under the ruthless Arteta.

In today's Carabao Cup final against Manchester City, the first hurdle to overcome in the club's quest for a Quadruple, Saka has the chance to step up and reaffirm just why he remains at the heart of Arsenal’s ambitions – and a key cog in Arteta’s system, with the likes of Madueke and Max Dowman knocking on the door.

No player is ever entirely safe in this team, so the numbers give pause for thought.

This season, Saka’s goals and assists per 90 minutes in the Premier League sit at 0.3 and 0.17 respectively. They are his lowest numbers since 2021-22, fewer than the 0.32 and 0.19 he mustered in that campaign when he was first cementing himself in the Arsenal XI. Even his chances created per 90 (2.41) is the winger’s lowest tally since the 2022-23 season.

He is arguably facing the consequence of lofty expectations after a blistering last couple of years, having put himself in the same bracket as the world’s best forwards.

Saka struck a phenomenal 37 goals and assists in the 2023-24 season, before registering 26 in the last campaign despite suffering a serious hamstring injury. That attacking potency is so hard to sustain for a prolonged period of time, never mind when dealing with injuries, which have not been kind to him.

On the other hand, he is Bukayo Saka. The numbers can and should be better. Sources point to the difference in the way Arsenal are set up this season through having Viktor Gyokeres as their No 9. Because of this, Saka is often placed wider to make more room for the Swede, for whom he is yet to provide an assist in the league.

Last season, whichever two wingers Arteta deployed would have more freedom to drive into the box, whereas now there is an emphasis on making room for the striker to operate between the lines. Gyokeres himself likes to peel away towards the left flank, which adds an extra element to the equation.

Noni Madueke (left) and Max Dowman (centre) are two of the players knocking on the door to replace Saka - but he has a chance to prove his worth again in today's Carabao Cup final

Of all Arsenal’s forwards, Kai Havertz shares the strongest connection with Saka - and the German has been injured for most of this season

Of all Arsenal’s forwards, Kai Havertz shares the strongest connection with Saka. For example, he has received an average of just 1.9 passes per league game from Gyokeres, compared to 5.3 passes per game from Havertz last season.

As seen on Tuesday night against Leverkusen, Saka thrives off connection. Ben White, who has only started five league matches this season, immediately paired up well with the England man, exchanging quick give-and-gos which set Saka on his way.

Arsenal's nucleus for the past three seasons has been an axis of Saka, Martin Odegaard and White on the right flank. Invariably, that has changed of late because of injuries – and the rise of Jurrien Timber. The Dutchman often attacks the penalty area from right back and is a forward threat in his own right, so that has taken away from Saka, too.

Despite a dip in goals and assists, his Arsenal team-mates continue to look for him on the right wing. Much of their build-up flows through Saka, whose knack of attracting two defenders opens up space for others.

If Saka can find the form that once made him untouchable, the Carabao Cup final offers the perfect stage to show why he is still Arsenal’s beating heart.