Premier League fans warned long-term streaming plan could hit them in the pocket

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The Premier League’s historic 3pm blackout is on shaky ground after the announcement of a Netflix-style service in Singapore. Chief executive Richard Masters has announced on Thursday that Premier League +, a direct-to-consumer platform, will be launched next season to show all 380 games.

Despite the Premier League's insistence otherwise, industry experts believe it could be the first step on the road to the blackout being lifted. Minal Modha from Ampere Analysis says that, while the Premier League don’t want to upset Sky Sports and TNT Sports, who are paying them £6.7bn over the current broadcast deal, they are keen to test the market.

“There’s still a handful of games in the blackout, so maybe they will become the first step towards a direct-to-consumer platform because it’s not damaging to any of the packages that they’re already in the market selling,” Modha told Mirror Football .

“That way they’re not competing with TNT or Sky for scheduling slots, because they don’t want that either. Those 3pm slots feel like they could be a happy medium to test the waters in the UK.”

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Sky Sports has the rights to 215 games currently, with TNT showing a further 52, and their money is still vital to the Premier League. Mirror Football understands that, for now, neither broadcaster feels threatened by the Premier League’s move, which has been in the works for some time.

“If they’re going to do it in the UK, those 3pm games are the best way without upsetting broadcasters,” Modha added.

“Unless what they do is take one of the broadcast packages away, but then you’re taking away potentially guaranteed broadcast revenue. My gut says they will spend the next three years rolling out direct-to-consumer in other markets, testing it out, before making a call on the UK.”

Despite the last Premier League broadcast deal being hailed as a record, it was actually a backwards step, with the rights worth £1.675bn a year, less than the £1.713bn a year over the 2016-2019 seasons. The fragmentation and stagnation of the sports rights market in Europe is a problem for the Premier League, as is the piracy that comes with the 3pm kick-offs.

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Modha says the league wants to future-proof its business without jeopardizing their broadcast partners. She draws a comparison with F1, which launched F1 TV Pro, its own direct-to-consumer platform, but has used it mainly as negotiation tactic with broadcasters while not stepping on the toes of Sky Sports.

It therefore makes commercial sense for the Premier League to lift the 3pm blackout, in place to protect attendances, and open up more content to viewers. That move would come after the conclusion of the current rights cycle in 2029, but wouldn’t be without risk.

The Premier League would have to appease the Football League, who are in favour of the 3pm blackout on Saturdays in order to encourage fans to attend matches. They would also have to convince fans to fork out for yet another subscription.

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“We’re living in a time when purses are already squeezed, people are struggling with rising fuel and food prices already,” Modha noted. “Normally entertainment is well shielded from that, but sport can sometimes be more vulnerable because it becomes harder to justify so many services.”

The Football Supporters Association didn’t respond to a request for comment, but chair Tom Greatrex stated their stance to City AM in December 2024.

“It should come as no surprise that the erosion of a full 3pm fixture list is putting the TV blackout under question,” he said. “The FSA supports retaining the blackout for the health of the entire game, putting that above the whims of broadcasters. As so often seems to be the case, the impact on lower league and non league clubs is barely considered.”

Nevertheless, it could go down well, with polling by YouGov in November revealing that 57 per cent of fans oppose the blackout, although that percentage dips to 47 per cent among match-going supporters.

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