Newcastle United vs Qarabag Champions League preview, team news and prediction
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With their Champions League playoff tie all but settled, Newcastle United welcome Qarabag to St James’ Park on Tuesday night for what is, by all accounts, a formality. Eddie Howe’s side demolished their Azerbaijani visitors 6-1 in last week’s first leg, leaving only the most improbable of disasters standing between them and a place in the last 16.
The star of the show in Baku was undoubtedly Anthony Gordon. The former Everton and Liverpool youngster delivered a sensational four-goal performanc e, single-handedly putting the tie out of reach and rewriting the record books in the process. Gordon became the fastest English player to net a Champions League hat-trick, the first Newcastle player ever to score four in a UCL match, and the Magpies’ highest scorer in a single Champions League campaign with 10 goals. Malick Thiaw and Jacob Murphy also found the net to round off a dominant display.
History is firmly on Newcastle’s side: in all 91 previous instances where a team has won the first leg of a European Cup knockout tie by five or more goals, that team has always progressed. Howe’s men can already start preparing for a last-16 clash with either Chelsea or Barcelona.
However, Newcastle’s momentum took a slight knock at the weekend, as they fell 2-1 to Manchester City in the Premier League. St James’ Park has also lost some of its aura in recent weeks, with the Magpies losing three of their last four home matches in all competitions and conceding at least twice in five of their last six games on Tyneside.
For Qarabag, the trip to England presents a near-impossible task, but Qurban Qurbanov’s side can still take pride in their Champions League journey. Memorable moments, such as their victory over Benfica and a hard-fought draw with Chelsea, will remain highlights, even as their European campaign has faded. Defensive frailties have been ruthlessly exposed in recent weeks, with six goals conceded in each of their last two Champions League outings—including a heavy defeat to Liverpool—and multiple goals allowed in every group stage match.
Qarabag’s record against English opposition offers little encouragement, with nine defeats and one draw from ten meetings, and five away losses by an aggregate score of 19-1. Their weekend domestic fixture against FK Neftchi was postponed to allow extra preparation, but with the Azerbaijani title race still alive—they sit just four points off the top—their focus may soon shift back to domestic matters.
With the tie all but decided, Newcastle will look to put on a professional display and seal their place in the last 16, while Qarabag aim to finish their European adventure with pride.
Newcastle defender Malick Thiaw will miss Tuesday’s match due to a one-game suspension, having picked up his third Champions League yellow card of the season in the first leg. Fortunately for the Magpies, Thiaw’s ban comes at an ideal time, as he will be available again for the last-16 stage.
Thiaw joins a growing injury list that includes Bruno Guimaraes (thigh), Emil Krafth (knee), Fabian Schar (ankle), Tino Livramento (thigh), and Lewis Miley (thigh). However, Sven Botman (back) and Yoane Wissa (knock) have not yet been officially ruled out. With the tie effectively decided, Eddie Howe is unlikely to risk either player, and could opt to give opportunities to a few youngsters in what may be a heavily rotated lineup.
On the Qarabag side, experienced defender Bahlul Mustafazada was forced off after just 22 minutes in the first leg with an adductor injury, which could sideline him for 10 to 12 weeks. Right-back Dani Bolt came on as his replacement, but Samy Mmaee and Badavi Huseynov are also available as natural centre-back options. Elvin Cafarquliyev, who scored Qarabag’s consolation goal last week, is expected to keep his place at left-back ahead of Toral Bayramov—remarkably, the visitors’ top league scorer this season with seven goals.
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