Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid Champions League preview, team news and prediction

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Bayern Munich and Real Madrid renew their rivalry for a 30th time in the Champions League when they meet at the Allianz Arena on Wednesday, with a semi-final place on the line.

Vincent Kompany’s side take a narrow lead into the quarter-final second leg after edging last week’s opener 2-1 at the Bernabeu. Goals either side of half-time from Luis Diaz and Harry Kane put Bayern in control and ended a nine-match winless run against the Spanish giants, but Kylian Mbappe’s late strike ensured Alvaro Arbeloa’s team remain firmly in contention.

History is on Bayern’s side. They have progressed from 29 of 30 two-legged UEFA ties after winning the first leg away from home, including 12 of 13 when that advantage was a single goal. The lone exception came in 2010-11, when Inter overturned a 1-0 first-leg deficit to win 3-2 in Munich and go through on away goals.

Bayern backed up their win in Madrid with a commanding 5-0 away victory over St Pauli in the Bundesliga on Saturday. The reigning champions now sit 12 points clear at the top after Borussia Dortmund’s defeat to Bayer Leverkusen, and could wrap up another title as soon as this weekend.

For now, the focus is firmly on Europe, as Kompany aims to take Bayern to their first Champions League semi-final since lifting the trophy in 2019-20. Real Madrid represent a significant test, not least because Bayern have lost seven of their last eight UEFA two-legged ties against Spanish opposition and have been beaten in four of their last five quarter-finals played over two legs.

Real Madrid arrive with their season wobbling at a critical time. Their first-leg defeat was followed disappointing domestic results, coming between a 2-1 loss at Mallorca and a frustrating 1-1 draw at home to Girona last Friday. That latest stumble drew boos at full time and has allowed Barcelona to open up a nine-point lead at the top of La Liga with seven matches left.

Life after Xabi Alonso has been turbulent for Arbeloa, with a shock Copa del Rey exit to lower-league opposition and an uneven European run increasing the pressure on the 43-year-old. With the league title slipping away, Madrid’s best hope of salvaging the campaign may lie in their ability to come alive on Champions League nights.

The 15-time European champions, though, have gone through in only one of their last seven UEFA two-legged ties when losing the first leg at home. Against German opposition, their record is far more intimidating: Real have won each of their last seven European Cup/Champions League quarter-final ties versus German sides.

They have also taken nine straight two-legged UEFA ties against German teams, and have lost only twice in their last 12 European away matches in Germany. At the Allianz Arena, Madrid are unbeaten in their last four visits and have avoided defeat in each of their last four Champions League two-legged ties against Bayern — most recently edging a 4-3 aggregate win in the 2023-24 semi-finals.

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Bayern will be without Lennart Karl (thigh) and Sven Ulreich (muscle), but Harry Kane is expected to be fit after a minor reaction that kept him on the bench at the weekend. Kane has 11 Champions League goals this season and has a goal or assist in each of his last four UCL games against Real.

Serge Gnabry is hoping to overcome a small knee issue to join Luis Diaz and Michael Olise, with Aleksandar Pavlovic pushing to start in midfield. Tah, Upamecano and Stanisic are set to return in defence in front of Manuel Neuer.

Real Madrid are still missing Thibaut Courtois (thigh) and Rodrygo (ACL), while Aurelien Tchouameni is suspended. Kylian Mbappe, the tournament’s top scorer with 14, is a slight doubt with a facial injury; if fit, he should start with Vinicius Junior, with Guler or Brahim Diaz also in the forward line.

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